9.      Heavy-duty road passenger transport

Heavy-duty road passenger transport includes motorized passenger vehicles with more than nine seats like buses and minibuses. It does not include freight transport.

9.1.  Activity level

In 2010, the global activity of the heavy-duty road passenger transport sector amounts to 7.2 trillion revenue passenger kilometers. This is expected to rise to more than 18 trillion revenue passenger kilometers by 2050, an increase of 157 percent. The increase is driven by a rise in world population and the drive to avoid slow individual travel.

9.2.  Emission reduction potential

In 2010, the heavy-duty road passenger transport sector emitted 356 Mt of CO2. In 2050, this is expected to decrease to 315 Mt, a decrease of 12 percent. With an activity increase of 157 percent, a large reduction in emission intensity is needed to achieve these emission reductions. The potential to bring down the emission intensity of heavy-duty passenger vehicles is large. It can be done by technological innovation incentivized by policies like fuel-economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles, as well as by technological development (e. g. hybrid drive-trains, increased aerodynamics, weight reduction, fuel cell vehicles, biofuels, eco-driving, full electric battery vehicles, etc.), improved consumer information schemes, fuel taxation, or implementation of bus rapid transit (BRT) systems or other mass transit schemes.

9.3.  Carbon intensity pathway

As shown in Figure I.9, the number of 2050 revenue passenger kilometers is expected to be more than 2.5 times the 2010 revenue passenger kilometers. Despite this growth in activity, the reduction potential could bring down the 2050 carbon intensity by 65 percent compared with 2010.





Figure I.9 While revenue passenger kilometers traveled in heavy-duty road passenger vehicles will more than double, carbon intensity is targeted to decline by 65 percent

Source: based on IEA (2014).