12.                 Other transport

The other transport sector includes all freight transport.

12.1. Activity level

For the other transport sector, no activity information was found in IPCC and IEA 2DS on activities and emissions in 2010 and toward 2050. Therefore, method III was used, with a monetary carbon intensity indicator. The relative activity growth of the sector is modeled by using the predicted global economic growth rate from the IEA for the ETP 2DS pathway, which equals roughly 3.3 percent per year.

12.2. Emission reduction potential

The reduction potential was determined by the overall reduction potential of the whole transport sector in the ETP 2014 2DS pathway. The pathway of the specified transport sectors above were subtracted from the pathway of the whole transport sector. The residue of this subtraction was used as the emission pathway for the other transport sector for 2010 to 2050. CO2 emissions in 2010 were 2,788 Mt and need to decrease to 1,445 Mt by 2050, a decrease of 48 percent.

 

Reduction measures include fuel economy policies, fuel replacement options, load optimization and efficiency strategies, and vehicle technology improvements.

 

12.3. Carbon intensity pathway

The activity level in terms of monetary value continues to increase while emissions show a decreasing trend, resulting in an expected decline in carbon intensity of 85 percent by 2050. Value-added (as a proxy for contribution to GDP) was used for company targets. The company’s carbon intensity and the sector’s intensity in the base year are linearly reduced at the same rate to the target year.

 

 

Figure I.12  Freight (other) transit will grow, but both emissions and carbon intensity can decline with new fuels

Source: based on IEA (2014).